ANALIZING WATER FRAMEWORK DIRECTIVE IMPACTS USING A MULTINOMIAL LOGIT LAND USE MODEL

We develop a two-stage, multinomial logit model of UK land use to investigate the impact of policy changes upon agriculture. The model utilizes a large panel database covering the entirety of England and Wales for 14 years between 1969 and 2004 integrated with the economic and physical environment determinants of all major agricultural land use types. Our model performs well in out-of-sample prediction of current land use and we use it to assess a proposed implementation of the Water Framework Directive via a tax on fertilizer. Results indicate that such policy change would generate substantial switching from arable to grassland systems, reducing significantly the amount of nitrate leaching into UK water-bodies.Water Framework Directive, Land use models, Discrete choice models, Multinomial logit, Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

“I’d rather wait and see what’s around the corner”: a multi-perspective qualitative study of treatment escalation planning in frailty

Introduction People living with frailty risk adverse outcomes following even minor illnesses. Admission to hospital or the intensive care unit is associated with potentially burdensome interventions and poor outcomes. Decision-making during an emergency is fraught with complexity and potential for conflict between patients, carers and clinicians. Advance care planning is a process of shared decision-making which aims to ensure patients are treated in line with their wishes. However, planning for future care is challenging and those living with frailty are rarely given the opportunity to discuss their preferences. The aim of the ProsPECT (Prospective Planning for Escalation of Care and Treatment) study was to explore perspectives on planning for treatment escalation in the context of frailty. We spoke to people living with frailty, their carers and clinicians across primary and secondary care. Methods In-depth online or telephone interviews and online focus groups. The topic guide explored frailty, acute decision-making and planning for the future. Data were thematically analysed using the Framework Method. Preliminary findings were presented to a sample of study participants for feedback in two online workshops. Results We spoke to 44 participants (9 patients, 11 carers and 24 clinicians). Four main themes were identified: frailty is absent from treatment escalation discussions, planning for an uncertain future, escalation in an acute crisis is ‘the path of least resistance’, and approaches to facilitating treatment escalation planning in frailty. Conclusion Barriers to treatment escalation planning include a lack of shared understanding of frailty and uncertainty about the future. Emergency decision-making is focussed on survival or risk aversion and patient preferences are rarely considered. To improve planning discussions, we recommend frailty training for non-specialist clinicians, multi-disciplinary support, collaborative working between patients, carers and clinicians as well as broader public engagement

Introducing willingness-to-pay for noise changes into transport appraisal: an application of benefit transfer.

Numerous research studies have elicited willingness-to-pay values for transport-related noise, however, in many industrialised countries including the UK, noise costs and benefits are still not incorporated into appraisals for most transport projects and policy changes (Odgaard et al, 2005; Grant-Muller et al, 2001). This paper describes the actions recently taken in the UK to address this issue, comprising: primary research based on the city of Birmingham; an international review of willingness-to-pay evidence; development of values using benefit transfers over time and locations; and integration with appraisal methods. Amongst the main findings are: that the willingness-to-pay estimates derived for the UK are broadly comparable with those used in appraisal elsewhere in Europe; that there is a case for a lower threshold at 1 45dB(A)Leq,18hr1 rather than the more conventional 55dB(A); and that values per dB(A) increase with the noise level above this threshold. There are significant issues over the valuation of rail versus road noise, the neglect of non-residential noise and the valuation of high noise levels in different countries. Conclusions are drawn regarding the feasibility of noise valuation based on benefit transfers in the UK and elsewhere, and future research needs in this field are discussed

Effectiveness of early intervention programs for parents of preterm infants: a meta-review of systematic reviews

Background: Various intervention programs exist for parents of preterm babies and some systematic reviews (SRs) have synthesised the evidence of their effectiveness. These reviews are, however, limited to specific interventions, components, or outcomes, and a comprehensive evidence base is lacking. The aim of this meta-review was to appraise and meta-synthesise the evidence from existing SRs to provide a comprehensive evidence base on the effectiveness of interventions for parents of preterm infants on parental and infant outcomes. Methods: We conducted a comprehensive search of the following databases to identify relevant SRs: Cochrane library, Web of science, EMBASE, CINAHL, British Nursing Index, PsycINFO, Medline, ScienceDirect, Scopus, IBSS, DOAJ, ERIC, EPPI-Centre, PROSPERO, WHO Library. Additional searches were conducted using authors’ institutional libraries, Google Scholar, and the reference lists of identified reviews. Identified articles were screened in two stages against an inclusion criteria with titles and abstracts screened first followed by full-text screening. Selected SRs were appraised using the AMSTAR tool. Extracted data using a predesigned tool were synthesised narratively examining the direction of impact on outcomes. Results: We found 11 SRs eligible for inclusion that synthesised a total of 343 quantitative primary studies. The average quality of the SRs was ‘medium’. Thirty four interventions were reported across the SRs with considerable heterogeneity in the structural framework and the targeted outcomes that included maternal-infant dyadic, maternal/parental, and infant outcomes. Among all interventions, Kangaroo Care (KC) showed the most frequent positive impact across outcomes (n = 19) followed by Mother Infant Transaction Program (MITP) (n = 14). Other interventions with most consistent positive impact on infant outcomes were Modified-Mother Infant Transaction Program (M-MITP) (n = 6), Infant Health and Development Program (IHDP) (n = 5) and Creating Opportunities for Parent Empowerment (COPE) (n = 5). Overall, interventions with both home and facility based components showed the most frequent positive impact across outcomes. Conclusions: Neonatal care policy and planning for preterm babies should consider the implementation of interventions with most positive impact on outcomes. The heterogeneity in interventions and outcomes calls for the development and implementation of an integrated program for parents of preterm infants with a clearly defined global set of parental and infant outcomes

Influence of urban pollution on the production of organic particulate matter from isoprene epoxydiols in central Amazonia

The atmospheric chemistry of isoprene contributes to the production of a substantial mass fraction of the particulate matter (PM) over tropical forests. Isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX) produced in the gas phase by the oxidation of isoprene under HO2-dominant conditions are subsequently taken up by particles, thereby leading to production of secondary organic PM. The present study investigates possible perturbations to this pathway by urban pollution. The measurement site in central Amazonia was located 4 to 6 h downwind of Manaus, Brazil. Measurements took place from February through March 2014 of the wet season, as part of the GoAmazon2014/5 experiment. Mass spectra of organic PM collected with an Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometer were analyzed by positive-matrix factorization. One resolved statistical factor (IEPOX-SOA factor) was associated with PM production by the IEPOX pathway. The IEPOX-SOA factor loadings correlated with independently measured mass concentrations of tracers of IEPOX-derived PM, namely C5-alkene triols and 2-methyltetrols (R = 0. 96 and 0.78, respectively). The factor loading, as well as the ratio f of the loading to organic PM mass concentration, decreased under polluted compared to background conditions. For an increase in NOy concentration from 0.5 to 2 ppb, the factor loading and f decreased by two to three fold. Overall, sulfate concentration explained 37 % of the variability in the factor loading. After segregation of factor loading into subsets based on NOy concentration, the sulfate concentration explained up to 75 % of the variability. Considering both factors, the data sets show that the suppressing effects of increased NO concentrations dominated over the enhancing effects of higher sulfate concentrations. The pollution from Manaus elevated NOy concentrations more significantly than sulfate concentrations relative to background conditions. In this light, increased emissions of nitrogen oxides, as anticipated for some scenarios of Amazonian economic development, could significantly alter pathways of PM production that presently prevail over the tropical forest, implying changes to air quality and regional climate.</html

Breast cancer screening in the Czech Republic: time trends in performance indicators during the first seven years of the organised programme

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Czech Breast Cancer Screening Programme (CBCSP) was initiated in September 2002 by establishing a network of accredited centres. The aim of this article is to describe progress in the programme quality over time after the inception of the organised programme.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The CBCSP is monitored using an information system consisting of three principal components: 1) the national cancer registry, 2) a screening registry collecting data on all screening examinations, further assessments and final diagnoses at accredited programme centres, and 3) administrative databases of healthcare payers. Key performance indicators from the European Guidelines have been adopted for continuous monitoring.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Breast cancer incidence in the Czech Republic has steadily been increasing, however with a growing proportion of less advanced stages. The mortality rate has recently stabilised. The screening registry includes 2,083,285 records on screening episodes between 2002 and 2008. In 2007-2008, 51% of eligible women aged 45-69 were screened. In 2008, the detection rates were 6.1 and 3.7 per 1,000 women in initial and subsequent screening respectively. Corresponding recall rates are 3.9% and 2.2%, however, it is necessary to pay attention to further assessment performed during the screening visits. Benign to malignant open biopsy ratio was 0.1. Of invasive cases detected in screening, 35.6% was less than 10 mm in diameter. Values of early performance indicators, as measured by both crude and standardized estimates, are generally improving and fulfil desirable targets set by European Guidelines.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Mammography screening in the Czech Republic underwent successful transformation from opportunistic prevention to an organised programme. Values of early indicators confirm continuous improvement in different aspects of process quality. Further stimulation of participation through invitation system is necessary to exploit the full potential of screening mammography at the population level.</p

Genetic Diversity and Microevolution of Burkholderia pseudomallei in the Environment

The soil dwelling Gram-negative bacterium Burkholderia pseudomallei is the cause of melioidosis, a serious human infection that occurs in Southeast Asia and northern Australia. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the population genetic structure of B. pseudomallei in the environment. To achieve this, we undertook soil sampling and culture for the presence of B. pseudomallei in 100 equally spaced points within an area of disused land in northeast Thailand, and undertook detailed genotyping of primary plate colonies isolated from three independent sampling points. Our results demonstrated that multiple B. pseudomallei genotypes were present within a single soil sample, and that different genotypes were present at independent but nearby sampling points. The B. pseudomallei genetic population was unevenly distributed within a given sample, with a predominant genotype co-existing with several genotypes present as a minority population. We discuss the implications of this structuring of genotypic frequency in terms of micro-evolutionary dynamics and ecology, and how our results may inform future sampling strategies

Machine layout and performance

The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is one of the largest scientific instruments ever built. Since opening up a new energy frontier for exploration in 2010, it has gathered a global user community of about 7,000 scientists working in fundamental particle physics and the physics of hadronic matter at extreme temperature and density. To sustain and extend its discovery potential, the LHC will need a major upgrade in the 2020s. This will increase its luminosity (rate of collisions) by a factor of five beyond the original design value and the integrated luminosity (total collisions created) by a factor ten. The LHC is already a highly complex and exquisitely optimised machine so this upgrade must be carefully conceived and will require about ten years to implement. The new configuration, known as High Luminosity LHC (HL-LHC), will rely on a number of key innovations that push accelerator technology beyond its present limits. Among these are cutting-edge 11-12 tesla superconducting magnets, compact superconducting cavities for beam rotation with ultra-precise phase control, new technology and physical processes for beam collimation and 300 metre-long high-power superconducting links with negligible energy dissipation. The present document describes the technologies and components that will be used to realise the project and is intended to serve as the basis for the detailed engineering design of HL-LHC